Wednesday, 7 August 2013

NHS Pension and value 7/8/2013

credit to 'refusnik' for this sage analysis;

'..Congratulations on being awake and aware enough to question whether you will ever see the pension you have been promised.

It is relatively easy to transfer the Cash Equivalent Transfer Value (CETV) of your accumulated contributions to a SIPP. You can then carry on contributing to the SIPP with tax relief at your highest marginal tax rate, sans employer contributions. 

You can invest in pretty much anything you like (including physical gold and mining equities)within the SIPP (at your own risk, of course). I'm personally betting that Mark Carney will do what all Central Bankers do best and print like a m***** f*****. 

The NHS pension scheme is technically a Ponzi scheme backstopped by one of the most insolvent organisations in the world (the UK government). 

The UK government currently has a debt of £1.2 trillion, additional unfunded public sector pensions liabilities of approximately £4.7 trillion, an annual income of £500 billion (tax receipts), and expenses of £700 billion (including £100 billion annual NHS spending). 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-12/uks-most-disturbing-number-total-unfunded-pension-obligations-321-gdp

http://moneyweek.com/endofbritain/



http://www.debtbombshell.com/

Like all Ponzi schemes, the NHSP works very well as long as the contributions exceed the outgoings, which has been the case so far with the dramatic growth of the NHS since its inception. Like in all Ponzi schemes, early contributors have done very well.

Unfortunately, this arithmetic works equally well in reverse. A contracting NHS would spell trouble for the Ponzi.

The NHS in its current size is unsustainable, being paid for on a credit card with an accumulated balance of £1.2 trillion, the interest payments(£70 billion) on which are only affordable to the UK government because current Gilt rates are the lowest they been for 300 years. When the sovereign bond bubble pops and interest rates rise, we will all learn the true meaning of the word "austerity" (annual interest payments >> £70 billion, public spending <<£500 billion, NHS spending <<<£100 billion).

Given that the organisation backstopping the NHSP has a printing press, it is likely that the nominal promises will be largely honoured, with a haircut or two thrown in. Whether this amount will even cover your electricity bill is another matter altogether. History is littered with public sector pensions (and pensioners) destroyed by default by inflation.

"We can guarantee cash benefits as far out as whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power". - Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman....'

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